New PMI data was released today. Look, I’ve broken it down into industries and for the first time in years, almost all industries are showing contraction. And the comments are all negative that sales and new orders have fallen. SP500 has already dropped by 1%.
Let me remind you that the business activity indicator is strongly correlated with the rate of GDP change and is ahead of it by several months. Therefore, unless the PMI improves significantly, then Q3 and Q4 GDP will contract. And these are stocks down, dollar, gold, yen and bitcoin up, bonds up. Be careful with your longs. Hedge them.